When interest rates were near zero it was easy for companies to borrow and for investors to overlook debt. But as interest rates increase, the amount of debt held by a business can become a significant refinancing risk for the company and investment risk for investors. Hello and welcome back to Reflections on Investing with

How can an option trade make 4000% in one day? Tesla stock has been highly volatile and one of the drivers of this volatility is the unusually large volume of options trading. Are large proportion of Tesla option contracts are traded on the day of expiration (zero DTE) and just out of the money. This

While 2020/2021 were great years for our High Fliers, in 2022 the party ended and many of those companies like Peloton, Wayfair and Carvana came crashing down.  In the first month of 2023 however we are seeing signs that the worst may be over for the High Fliers. For many of these companies January of

Download Memo as PDF Retrospective As 2021 came to an end, the stock market party was going strong. The S&P 500 index closed at 4766.18 up 1,010 points or 26.9% for year to within a hair’s breadth of its all-time high. The Dow Jones (36,338) and the NASDAQ (15,645) indexes also closed near record highs. Most

We revisit “Valuing The Automotive Industry” our in depth report from last year. “Valuing The Automotive Industry” (Nov. 2021)

In October of 2021 we reviewed the Howard Marks Checklist from Mr. Marks’ book “Mastering the Market Cycle.” Since then conditions in the market have changed dramatically so we felt it was time to revisit Mr. Marks’ checklist. 

The market’s worst day of 2022 was September 13th when the Bureau of Labor’s Consumer Price Index came in higher then expected. A month later the next CPI release was a similar surprise however the market’s reaction to that news was much different. Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein remarked: “This is one of those trading

We explain the approach to valuing the S&P 500 developed by NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran a co-author with our senior advisor Professor Bradford Cornell, and explain its relevance to current market conditions.

Download Memo as PDF  Efficient markets              If markets are efficient in that prices always reflect fair value and expected returns on stock are constant, why would anyone need an investment manager? There are two answers. The first, put forth by Sandy Grossman and Joe Stiglitz, is that a truly efficient market is a contradiction

There is an inverse relationship between current investment performance and expected future performance. Understanding why is a key to maximizing long-run risk adjusted returns.