From Liberation Day Chaos to Cautious Recovery The second quarter of 2025 started with the April 2nd “Liberation Day” tariff…

Stock Price Performance in Review We postponed publication of our quarterly memo awaiting the statement from President Trump on tariffs…

Stock Price Performance in ReviewThe year 2023 ended on a high note. During the year, the S&P 500 Index rose…

Stock Price Performance in ReviewWe begin our Q3 2024 memo with a look back over the last ten years. The…

The performance of the market was remarkable in the second quarter. Driven by the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, for which…

The S&P 500 ended the year 2023 at 4,769. During December, several leading financial firms were asked for their forecasts…

A market crash is nothing more than a low risk premium meeting risk aversion.—– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., November 8,…

Discount rate variation (equivalently expected returns, risk premiums) is now at the center of asset pricing questions, from bubbles to…

Stock Market Review for the First Half Year The market performance in the first half of 2023 was a surprise,…

During the first quarter the story of both the fixed income and stock market revolved around the ongoing evolution of…

Retrospective As 2021 came to an end, the stock market party was going strong. The S&P 500 index closed at…

Efficient markets             If markets are efficient in that prices always reflect fair value and expected returns on stock are…